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hotspur [he/him]

@ hotspur @hexbear.net

Posts
1
Comments
156
Joined
6 yr. ago

  • This is the correct strategy I think. None of the other gulf countries are creditable threats, and even Israel would have to slink back home if it didn’t have the US back stopping it and filling out the picture. You get US out of the region in a humiliating way so that it will be hard for them to come back, Israel will have to shrink back, and start behaving. And getting gulf states to pressure US to leave, while also pulverizing US military infrastructure in those locations is a good high pressure way to achieve this.

    The GCC is learning quickly that they are a friend of convenience to US and will be left out in to cold in favor of Israel every time—might help them along, or help their populaces along to replace them and kick the US out. Plenty of appetite in BRICS nations for the oil they supply.

    I suppose they’d have to fear the US turning around later, after licking its wounds and just taking them over—or would do so via Israel action, and I don’t know that you could rely on Iran, China, Russia to rock much on their behalf at that point, but maybe. Their best bet would be to kick US out, which would help weaken Israel, and then get deeply in bed with China and Russia as fast as possible to help ward off punishment from the angry dying empire. They have all been calling Putin to enlist his help with getting a ceasefire, so perhaps there’s some of that discussion going on.

  • So this is complete speculation and I have nothing concrete to back it up other than vague correlation between strange behavior and statements over time from Trump admin. But my proposition is this: what if Trump is being advised, now that they’ve lept off a cliff edge, that the best way forward is to expand, with possible troops on the ground, and during this protracted and horrible conflict use it to help with the midterms, or possibly suspend elections/enact military law/state of exception because of the “national security emergency”.

    Will put my loose argument below in spoiler tags so it doesn’t clog up the feed:

    Again, I know this is completely unknowable and possibly silly, etc but I submit:

    • trump and proxies have been musing over various ways of “cancelling” or otherwise subverting the midterms for the last few months.
    • their decision, or coercion by Israel (or bibi’s deep state handlers, you chose which relationship configuration you prefer), to do this war has put them out in uncharted terrritory—they weren’t popular before, but the downsides to them on this seem practically limitless compared to vague or nonexistent upsides if they “win”
    • the midterms were already a sort of existential threat to the regime; without manipulating or controlling the outcome, which would be messy and complicated and leave a lot of evidence, they were looking at a hard deadline. It’s seems likely that given their terrible performance they would find control of the house or senate likely in democratic hands, or at least majority unsympathetic politicians, and from that point on, they could look forward to investigations/impeachments, budget fights and generally a lame duck admin for two years, while all of the bad decisions came home to roost for the long haul.
    • now they have a vaguely double-existential threat scenario—midterms, and fallout (hopefully not literally) from a failure in this illegal war.
    • Bibi follows this strategy over and over again: every time he’s about to be thrown out, he starts a new violent commitment that helps him avoid losing power, forces support to “stay the course” and keeps him away from his corruption trial.
    • bonus: my real fear with this conflict is that facing the exhaustion of their defenses, Israel will decide to “defensively” strike Iran with nukes, since they’ll claim that surrender would be tantamount to extinction of the state of Israel, and if the US were unable to stop that action, it would likely cause major world war or nuclear Armageddon. Dragging out a bad war, adding boots on the ground, in a sense sacrificing American serviceman in exchange to keep Israel’s hands off the big red button might be acceptable to Trump and co, particularly if it comes with the benefit of giving them a way to fuck with elections.

    I’m not suggesting they’re hoping for an gw bush stay the course boost, that would be insane, since this choice will be politically toxic to Americans, alongside all of the other toxic effects we’ll get from this stupid and horrible attack. I’m saying they might think it would be easier to illegally suspend elections this way, than any other way they’ve tried to scheme up.

  • They can’t fathom ever making such a choice themselves, so it’s impossible to understand someone else choosing that. But don’t worry, they’ll easily rationalize the sacrifice as something self serving or part of religious zealotry to make things square for themselves.

  • This is wild… if it were just one dude I wouldn’t think a second about it, but given that this is distributed across units, that would suggest this is a communication from higher up to tell the troops. Did hegseth send out a stupid memo to all commanders to tell the troops this shit?

  • Those are amazing videos—the arc, hit and lights out.

  • Better name for sure

  • Yeah the guy who makes these has a “slop” banner on YouTube. A sorta “worlds burning, might as well use the fuel to make fun of it” vibe?

  • It’s an AI version of a JD Vance meme turned into a member of Queen. That… visage is a very popular intenet version of JD Vance, a. Sort of lollipop guild Andre the Giant crazy look.

  • Yeah I love that he puts in that version of JD in both videos. I kinda think that given how widespread this version of him is on the internet, more people have seen him like this, so in a sense this is what he looks like in most people’s heads. Would be nice.

  • Yeah was wondering if that was it.

  • music @hexbear.net

    Iran (so far away)

  • So is it Air Force regulation that all pilots who can grow them must maintain mustaches?

  • God it really is feeling like a plan and mission springing out of the minds of people who last made new memories 20 years ago… I keep asking myself, how can they not see the basic things that I, a silly internet reader seem to see about an attack on Iran, but this is one explanation—they really live in an alternated reality.

  • I don’t really know at this point whether he was a good, or bad, or neutral guy in the s heme of things. But I found his post presidential twitter behavior very amusing, and as a result sorta liked him for no good reason. Also because after the bush years, I was finally able to properly pronouce his name.

    I suppose they’ll say they’re cleaning up potential regime backfillers…. But really reads more like revenge/vindictiness and lack of more consequential targets.

  • Ah ok that makes sense. Figured this had to be Mecca.

  • This is what happens a when you give the drunk tv grifter the keys to the army twitter acct.

  • Jesus that is horrible. Also what is that Ben-hur looking collegium thing in the foreground?

  • Thanks for posting that, so there has been some reporting. Some very strange items they were playing with off label… if I recall correctly from the original event, they found IDF guns in the LV house, which doesn’t mean anything per se, but is intriguing.

  • That is crazy how close the person filming the strike was… looked like they were only a couple stories below max. Guess they probably weren’t expecting their building to get hit.

  • Yup I had that feeling too—they were super weird and there’s been no follow up, very strange enterprise you’d think it be more investigated.