Conselheiro

My opinion is that RevLeft oftentimes is more of an spontaneous ramble than actually researched and scripted speech, and I'll take a look at this episode later, but I don't see the issue with the first part of their position as you present it. Trump and Dubio have been signalling for a strategic retreat almost a week after they deployed CENTCOM, and there were a lot of leaks that the diplomatic delegation was trying to negotiate ending it with limited symbolic strikes like they did after the assassination of Soleimani in 2020. It turned around specifically when Netanyahu made his visit, and Israel was even the first to attack.

I only have no idea about the midterms thing. I haven't seen any attempt to cement that as a possibility from anybody in the US, and it seems like a horribly risky maneuvre for no gain whatsoever. So what if the Republicans lose the midterms if Congress basically does nothing anyway? The Dems are never going to fight on anything that actually matters so directly attacking the domestic legitimacy of his own government like that would be a level of self-sabotage that would make Nicholas II dissolving the State Duma look genius.

It didn't work in Venezuela with a barely 20 year old Bolivarian Revolution (it wasn't regime change, PSUV is still in power, their policies didn't even change much), but people out there really believed it would work with the 70 year old Islamic Revolution rooted in a more-than-a-thousand year old traditions? The proper comparable regime changes in recent years would be Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan, all of which took months to years of open war. The officials knew this from the start, but MSM should stop normalising this notion of regime change because it's either not going to happen or going to be an extremely long and costly process.

Third paragraph: Anyways, we as New Yorkers don’t really have to fear any retaliation from Iran, so no worries, you can go back to brunch after you express your dissent on social media.

I also read it that way on a first pass because I missed the "Iranian" in "Iranian New Yorkers". He's probably referring to the likely surge in hate crimes against Iranians that's bound to happen, and that he'll (allegedly) work to prevent it.

Illegal war of aggression

He said the words. He also didn't fumble around doing a both-sidesy condemnation of Iran. As far as I'm aware, that's already the best comment on a US war for a elected US politician this Century.

I'm at a point I'm actually saying "death to americans" instead. I think every single US-passport-holder should be expelled from every self-respecting country at the minimum. I'm sorry for the few good ones, but it's a fair price to pay to get rid of any operatives and infiltrators. I'm also glad Israelis got attacked during Carnival.

Because they have strategic partnerships with Iran, for a start. I'm less optimistic about China than most on this forum, but this is not an attack on Niger, Burkina Faso or even Cuba and Venezuela, it's a direct attack on what should be a critical military ally that would even have every right to call for Chinese assistance, including within the UN charter. It's depressing this is the most China can offer an ally, and makes me wonder if they would do anything if even the DPRK got attacked at this point. It's not about being world police, it's about mutual self-defence and they should at the very least threaten some diplomatic repercussion or material support of some kind.

But even at that, they're also a permanent member of the Security Council, so if they're gonna pretend the UN has any legitimacy they at least have a global responsibility to do more than this. For what it's worth, South Africa forced the ICC to issue a warrant against Netanyahu and Petro was in US soil calling for US soldiers to disobey orders and create an army to liberate Palestine, so even on the diplomatic front they're lagging behind. 30 Cuban soldiers died defending Maduro, and the DPRK helped defend Kursk. At some point this inaction becomes complacency which, with power to do something, will eventually become complicity. I'm not a Chinese citizen, so I have no say on Chinese foreign policy, but they're proving themselves a lackluster ally, specially comparing to Capitalist Russia. They should at the very least say "we condemn this and are looking into reducing trade with Israel until it shows commitment to peace in the region" or something.

Hopefully you will reply rather than sneak away with a smug look on your face like your kind usually does.

So it’s clear – they must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.
That remains the primary aim of the United Kingdom and our allies – including the US.
[...] As part of our commitments to the security of our allies in the Middle East we have a range of defensive capabilities in the region – which we’ve recently taken steps to strengthen.
Our forces are active and British planes are in the sky today as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests, and our allies - as Britain has done before, in line with international law.
We’ve stepped up protections for British bases and personnel to their highest level.
They should refrain from further strikes, give up their weapons programmes, and cease the appalling violence and repression against the Iranian people – who deserve the right to determine their own future, in line with our longstanding position.

Emphasis mine. Despite saying "we didnae do it and we wouldnae done it", this is quite clearly stating that they're militarily helping their ally, the US, with regards to their goals, which include changing Iranian internal policy and governance altogether. Or am I mistaken somehow? Please correct me.

Grad's servers giving a lot of internal errors, wonder how many users are obsessively refreshing pages (like me).

Yeah, this attack was so absurdly telegraphed by Israel that I'd be surprised if Khameini was anywhere where he could possibly be targeted. Like, every embassy was evacuating but are we supposed to believe the Head of State of the target country didn't evacuate too? It'd also be a horrible hit to morale if the entire Iranian government were found to be lying about his death, and that's not a lie that can easily be kept for long. Either side lying would be hard to maintain, but the costs for admitting or disproving it are stacked against Iran, whereas Trump can just pretend it never happened.

~~Insert here the pun about "big sad" and SAD~~

I'm generally a social anxious person myself, though I'd advise to "do as I say and not as I do" because my main coping mechanism is comical amounts of alcohol lol. There's some pretty good social anxiety medication out there, but it's important to use them as a tool and not as a crutch. Social anxiety can be managed through psychological and physical techniques, so over-relying on external chemicals can end up making it worse due to lack of training.

For my more advisable coping mechanisms, I tend to rehearse interactions well in advance and plan when I am doing "social" carefully. If socialising happens during the specific socialising timeframe I'm ready for, it works out better. Another really important skill is being able to say "no" to things that fall outside of what you're comfortable with. If anybody asks me to do "social" without prior notice, they'll probably get a "no I'm busy" unless I'm in a good enough mood. The language of disability can sometimes be useful too, you can say you're "not feeling well" or "sick" or whatever and people won't bother you that much. If it's bad enough for the DSM, it's bad enough for you as an individual to feel no shame over it.

For the low-level stuff, find small habits that get you some breathing room. I don't like most fidget toys because they look like children stuff, so I usually carry a lighter that I can feel with my hands as a subtle way to ground myself. Cheap pens, jewellery, earrings can work too. You can also go drink water or to the bathroom (those two work well together lol) whenever you're feeling overwhelmed, which is also good for your health anyway. If you have any close friends in your organisation you can tell them about it and ask them to provide social cover if you just need to get up and go on a walk randomly. Though I'd advise actually not getting too intimate in politics because it's a risky proposition. Also, as a smoker, I advise you to not start smoking either tobacco or cannabis. The first might relieve your social anxiety but it'll obviously ruin your health, while the latter is less destructive but will actually make you more anxious in the long run.

I'm currently also paying attention to how my food habits impact my mood. Not sure if that's just a "me" thing, but might be worth taking note if you get more or less socially anxious given what types of food you've eaten.

Edit: also organising doesn't always have to be about socialising. I've done both a lot of really tiring social tasks that required me to interact daily with over a hundred people (worst period of my life!), but also really solitary tasks involving documentation, reading, writing, programming and such. Sadly small organisations kinda require everybody to be a jack-of-all-trades, but a good division of labour when possible can both be more accommodating and actually more effective.

The eternal burden of being right. Israel went and did it. Negotiating with the US in the Middle East is like negotiating with an armed man with a rabid dog.

Iran's response so far has been fairly limited. There'll probably be way more missiles at night (like... now lol), but after the twelve days war success I think they'll slowly ramp up attacks over time. Some IDF folks claiming they'll seek complete sky superiority by tomorrow, but I think it's just sabre-rattling cuz that'd be asking for getting their UAVs and planes shot down with Iran's sheer size and AA equipment.

Spreading out the attacks over multiple surrounding stationary military bases looks like it was a success, but I haven't seen any reports of attacks on mobile naval assets yet, which is strange. Also very little footage from Israeli territory, interceptions or not, but I'm not sure what to make out of that.

Overall things are looking good for Iran right now, no matter whether the conflicting reports over Khameini's alleged death are true or not. I doubt they're true because his martyrdom could be used as a rallying cry, and lying about it would be counterproductive.

US citizens seeing the US nuke the entirety of Mars surface to to kill or enslave every Martian and estabilish a galactic monopoly on Martian Unobtainium: "this must be about the Midterms!"

Iran's strategy right now seems to focus on blockading the Strait, which will severely harm the global economy in general and European-US-Israeli economy in specific. Bombing Israel is a secondary tactic for this broader economic strategy, as Israel's military (like the US) is really good for quick engagements and assymetrical warfare but is incredibly costly for protracted wars. Despite all posturing, Iran won't actually attempt to "end" Israel unless there's a major breakthrough in the region. Also, Israel has nuclear bombs, so any such attempt would be incredibly risky.

Ironically the collapse of Syria and Jolani's cooperation with Israel as well as Maliki's possible premiership in Iraq could create the conditions for broader land war through those countries, but I think that's too far off in the future and merely speculation.

MiddleEastSpectator reported that this specific image is AI.

Seems like Israel pushed for it. The Trump admin was clearly trying to back down without admitting defeat before the Netanyahu meeting a couple weeks back. The smart thing to do now would be to back off now and let Israel take the fall.

This thing has been on my backlog of things to tinker with for two years now. It's to radio what the internet was for telephony. I think the current situation with anti-ICE organisation's software being blocked is proof that this is useful. Really cheap too, for dollar-havers.

You lost me at calling dark souls beautiful haha. Ngl, even dark souls 3 looks kinda trash for the time it released. You know how you remember shitty graphics better than they were because you played it as a kid? DS1 looks like how i remember PS2 graphics lmao.

Not going to argue because it's subjective and all, but I replay Dark Souls 1 at least once a year, so it's definitely not just memory. I don't find it pretty because of the graphical fidelity, which granted is on the low end for a PS3 game but mostly for the framing and good use of vistas. For example, Anor Londo's models are fairly low poly and the textures are simple, but I appreciate how the game forces you to look at it through flattering angles.

DS3 doesn't really do much like that due to the level structure (except for Anor Londo again lol), and DS2 is just kinda fugly, but I don't really like either of those games.

Anyone who is found to be in possession of incest pornography could face a maximum sentence of two years in prison, while anyone found to be publishing it could face five years behind bars.

Guess how many people who are caught in possession of it are going to get prosecuted versus the number of gigantic porn sites and studios that make stupid amounts of money over distributing it. Also, like CSAM, watching it on a browser through one of those distributors could technically count as "possession". The fact that they're focusing so much on the "prison" punishment rather than fines or service takedowns means they're not even pretending to go after producers.

I'd also like to read some actual sources with regards to the relation of consumption of pornographic simulations of incest and actual real life abuse. I have no strong opinion either way, but the position there seems a bit "it is known". The porn industry itself, on the other hand, is filled to the brim with very well documented abuse no matter how much the big sites pinkwash it. I suppose Labour doesn't care about workers, what a surprise.

While a complete porn ban is unlikely to ever come to light, especially considering LADbible's 'For F**k's Sake' campaign found that 77 per cent of Gen Z people admit to watching it, the current government is committed to ensuring it is as safe as possible.

Ah, yes, safe pornography. \s

Meanwhile, Musk's little mechahitler chatbot is still out there helping brits to make nonconsensual porn. Just block the mechahitler website, you cowards.

(I'm going to use the word "African American" a lot because these organisations use it, even though I find "Black Americans" a more correct term.)

Obviously no such thing as true emancipation of some without full emancipation of all and all that, but you probably want more meaningful answers than slogans.

Black Nationalism movements had to struggle with this question before, with middling results. Nation of Islam itself used to promote the formation of a sovereign African-American nation-state somewhere in the South, and Malcolm X's views developed from separation to nationalism as he split from them. The so-called "New Black Panther Party" (not to be confused with the now-called "Black Lion Party") is one of the few organisations that proposes such a thing.

Racial separation has many issues as a central proposition from a theoretical standpoint. First off, going by Stalin's definition of a "nation", racial groups in the USA as it stands today lack the key aspect of common territory, and so are in shaky ground as a "nation". While creating such a territory as an after-fact might sound like it corrects the issue, it actually makes the settler contradiction quite clear.

Suppose the NBPP manages to somehow acquire and defend some territory in Louisiana. Not all African Americans live in that region, it's not common territory to anybody but the (black) people who live there. So now you have to develop a system in which black people from the whole of the (possibly quite hostile) USA can migrate there, but even then, these "foreign" African Americans will not have the same historical connection to that specific region. No matter how much legislation is passed and proclamations are made, it'll take a reasonably long time for these "foreign" African Americans to integrate, and in reality they'll be immigrants in everything but name. Besides that, many African Americans for many reasons might not be able to -- or might not want to -- immigrate, and for those people this new state presents no solution to the systemic racism in the (possibly quite hostile) USA. In effect, it proposes that the only salvation for African Americans is to flee their homes, their lands, their neighbourhoods, their history, to some isolated Garden of Eden. It invalidates African Americans outside this new state, similarly to what Israel does to non-Israeli jews, and gives an excuse for persecution abroad.

Now, this state doesn't exist inside the USA political system. It's gonna need its own army, its own diplomatic organisation, its own intelligence agencies and so on. If the relationship with the USA is adversarial, they'll be forced into concessions or risk being invaded. It does not solve racial conflict, it merely simplifies it to the stage of state diplomacy and dislocates the people from the equation.

Obviously this deals mainly with black people in the US, who don't have specific "legal" historical claims to its territory like other groups like Chicanos, Indigenous people and such, but it shouldn't matter. By not having control of their lands, they've all been dispersed all throughout the USA and abroad. Achieving nominal independence might be a temporary benefit, but so long as the original US is still allowed to exist and to exert its own racism within its borders, it'll do all it can to control this new country. And they'll probably have an easier time using it as a pressure valve.

This is why Black Nationalism rejects the idealistic notion of a Black nation-state as the solution to racism, but the key word here is "solution". Separatism can be a tool, which may be used in the struggle for broader political goals. The Land Back movement commonly ends up in just petit bourgeois land transfer, but it has also provided some experiences of popular self-government and wealth redistribution to more radical organisations (Nick Estes talks a lot about his). If the NBPP was primarily socialist like the old BPP and came to the conclusion that separation was the correct tactic for the emancipation of black workers, that'd be interesting. However, they in principle focus on cultural/racial separation first, and a lot of their non-Marxist positions follow from that. It's why they do militias first, free breakfast programs second, and barely any union work.

Since you mention the UK, separatism there is also mostly more successful as a tactic than a strategy. There's massive rejection to Westminster's fixation with austerity in general -- and New Labour in specific -- in Scotland, and it's growing in Wales and NI. They also have an advantage over the US due to the common territory issue. The SNP and Plaid Cymru notably lost votes to Labour during the Corbyn years (though he really fumbled in Scotland with Brexit), and regained their popularity now with Sir Kid Starver. The Alba Party is a good case study for failing by trying to use Nationalism and Independence, but having no clear coherent proposals that require that independence in the first place. NI is a whole can of worms.

That's all to say, secession in the USA could be an useful tactic for "unpermitted" policy but is a bad strategy, and Lenin himself probably has some text about that. AFAIK it's unlikely as I don't know of any regions with strong enough political movements outside the permissible spectrum, so some fringe progressive groups get shock headlines about calling for independence and nothing else, and thrash meaningless online polls sometimes get huge margins, but it's not going to actually happen unless they seek something that's impossible while staying in the US and have the local support for it. Despite all the fear-mongering, the USA is not nearly geographically polarised enough. There's no "Yellow State" that is dominated by a local party that can't possibly the win National Elections like in Scotland. A "PSL Independent Illinois" would be an interesting development, I guess.

Nah, too few paragraphs. I reckon they were was just overeager to participate and maybe a bit too happy to find a forum that supports their "identity" as a "Stalinist", whatever that means in their mind. It was two day ban anyway, so hopefully they learn and adapt to the culture of actual discussion forums.