One of the most important decisions you face as a forecaster is simply when to publish a statistical model for public consumption. If you’re just running a model for your personal edification — or to make bets with — the threshold may actually be lower. If you’re evaluating the impact of a player injury on an NFL or NBA game that you’re considering betting on, for instance, then you might only get a couple of minutes before some reasonably rational assessment of the impact has already been priced into prevailing betting lines. Under these circumstances, a good first-pass estimate can go a long way. By the time you dot all the ‘i’s and cross all the ‘t’s to incorporate the impact of the injury into a formal model, it may be too late.

When you issue a statistical forecast publicly, though, I think the responsibility is slightly greater. In some cases, p

Hey, new to the Fediverse and thought I would put this out there.

If you teach stats or use stats in your job, you might be interested in using my GUI for R. I hope this doesn't count as an ad, since it is free.

I like how versatile R is, but I hate remembering how to type in what I already know it can do.

So I wrote an app.

You can tell I am not a programmer or a computer scientist (I am an engineer, industrial researcher and occasional teacher) but it works to do the basic to the moderate stats you probably use all the time.

It is free. I just put some of my blog posts and books on the splash page. If you register I only send you info about the app.

Let me know if you would like any enhancements. I continue to add stuff to it until I can do most of what the practical researcher would need.

Video in which Matt Parker explains Benford's Law and why it cannot be applied to elections