peterwildeford.substack.com Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
New data supports an exponential AI curve, but lots of uncertainty remains
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.
Related community: [email protected]
Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de The War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictions
thecategoricalimperative.substack.com Ukraine is Falling. The end is Near.Thoughts and Predictions on the end of the Russia-Ukraine War.
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de 
nodumbideas.com Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market500 years before Polymarket, the Vatican fought to stop gambling on papal affairs. Should we worry that it’s back?​​​​​​​​​​​​
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de Manifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money again
manifoldmarkets.notion.site Your connected workspace for wiki, docs & projects | NotionA new tool that blends your everyday work apps into one. It's the all-in-one workspace for you and your team
The same on their Substack.
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google
asteriskmag.com The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google—AsteriskOver the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure?
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts
comments.cftc.gov View Comment - CFTCComment for Proposed Rule 89 FR 48968, Pratik Chougule, Coalition for Political Forecasting
Direct link to the pdf maybe.
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forecasting @discuss.tchncs.de copacetic @discuss.tchncs.de Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC
www.mikesblog.net KALSHI WINS LAWSUIT AGAINST CFTC!!!The prediction market platform Kalshi announced on their company Discord serve (which is open to the public) that they’ve won their lawsuit against the CFTC, which had previously banned them from operating prediction markets on US election.
