Conselheiro

@ Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml

Posts

94
Comments

256
Joined

9 mo. ago

4w ago

Russia Cannot Accept NATO Troops in Ukraine Under Security Guarantees - Foreign Ministry
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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 4w ago
Damn, Russia somehow didn't account for that. Guess more war is in order.

4w ago

Moore Threads announces a new GPU architecture that will power upcoming gaming and AI compute GPUs

I hope one of these Chinese companies eventually taps into the massive potential of low-end hardware for exports. My old hardware ain't gonna last long, and more people would be able to buy cheap GTX 1050ti-level stuff instead of the more expensive AI/raytracing tech most companies are focusing on nowadays.

4w ago

What's even the point of the current US offensive on Iran?

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 4w ago

That makes a lot of sense, I think this is the correct read. I remember reading something similar during the fall of Assad's government and attacks on Lebanon that it would also impact that same corridor. With that in mind, even bombing Iran into complete anarchy would be a sufficient strategic victory to the US if a more tactical approach fails.

Edit: read the whole thing, and it's relieving to know that Russia and China have mutual defense agreements with Iran. Hopefully 2026 is the year those CENTCOM carriers sink to the bottom of the ocean.

4w ago

What's even the point of the current US offensive on Iran?

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 4w ago

Erm, aren't you? I see mentions of it everywhere. In fact, I see more mentions of it than actual decent analysis of US deployments. It's even starting to get annoying seeing all the OSINT channels I follow get flooded with it.

4w ago

Epstein files: FBI memo says Israel ‘compromised’ Trump, Epstein had Mossad ties

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 4w ago

Then this revelation is kind of boring, which is why I think it's misleading. There are many more effective ways to influence US policy than blackmailing presidents, which last like 4 years each. And given Trump backed down on his promise to end the Ukraine war, and US support for Israel hasn't changed at all since even the Obama days, I don't see what either country would've got out of it.

On the other hand, here we are discussing whether Trump is receiving foreign influence or not, instead of how the bourgeoisie knows no borders and has no limits to their depravity. If it were a distraction, I think it was successful.

1mo ago

Epstein files: FBI memo says Israel ‘compromised’ Trump, Epstein had Mossad ties

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

I'm not ignoring it, I'm afraid of it being reframed under the rug of "foreign influence" and "bad actors". I see the Israel Lobby as a US sub-operation rather than a particularly Israeli one. I believe the US controls Israel rather than the other way around, and Zionist psyops are just another tool for maintaining the relationship no matter how domestically unpalatable it becomes. If there was no Epstein and no worldwide sex-traficking ring or related blackmail, I can still see Trump, Biden, Clinton, Obama or any other bourgeois spokesperson enacting the exact same policy because of material conditions, not being personally compromised through a Jewish relative. The MIC doesn't need to blackmail their representatives to maintain support for the rabid dog white supremacist military colony in the Middle East. If anything, these revelations could be a prelude for smoothly replacing Trump the Person with another Trump the Politician.

1mo ago

Epstein files: FBI memo says Israel ‘compromised’ Trump, Epstein had Mossad ties

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

That's the thing that irks me, it has all the people that the run-of-the-mill USian "moderate" agrees is bad, and none of the actual political reasons why those actors act like they do. Are we supposed to believe the Trump admin supports Israel because of Epstein? And Putin?? Seems too Great Man-ish to me. Also very convenient for (actual) anti-Semites to write it off, but that's a tangential point.

1mo ago

Epstein files: FBI memo says Israel ‘compromised’ Trump, Epstein had Mossad ties

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Honestly, this one leak seems to tie things up too neatly. Suspiciously neatly, specially if you have "problematic" preconceptions. Like, Trump is compromised by an ex-Mossad agent, who's also the world sex-traficking kingpin, through Trump's Jewish son-in-law, and it all ties back up to a Russia-based organisation led by a Putin advisor? It fits too perfectly into the "Trump is an anomaly" narrative. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but I don't trust this one.

1mo ago

Further Epstein files were revealed today/yesterday (CW: literally everything. Proceed with caution)

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Just adding to crit's response, you can still check the retweets on Nitter without an account.

https://nitter.net/prolewiki

1mo ago

What happens to the human body in 49C heat? Australians are finding out

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Complete layman here too, but maybe it's related to deforestation? Maps really well to this other map.

1mo ago

I have trouble seeing Trotskyism as a real ideology

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

I think the main issue is that "Trotskyism" means very little without additional qualifiers. There are many many strands of Trotskyism that are mostly united by rejecting the USSR and similar states and some interpretation of permanent revolution. Other than that they can range from social democrats to syndicalists to radicals, and they all hate each other.

What I see a lot in the imperial core is the same as those moderate "anti-authoritarian" social democrats trying to pass as "anarcho-syndicalist" without a miligram of revolution in their bones. In Latam it's usually the opposite, with the Trotskyists around here usually being militant radicals with effective local practice, who have a Marxist understanding of authority, but horrible international policy.

They can't even agree if they like Lenin.

1mo ago

Are there any accounts of communists in heavily suppressed nations about how they dealt with political suppression?

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Jakarta Method is not exactly that, but it's adjacent enough to warrant mentioning.

1mo ago

Yugopnik tweeting nazi shit

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

He's not gonna live in poverty because of his failing business. Dude was well off enough to start it in the first place, he's still making money from the podcast and has that means.tv thing going on. Worst comes to worst, he'll have to downsize, stop wasting money on expensive offices and stock footage, and maybe get a part time job or freelance work with his frankly exceptional video skills, not go to sleep hungry. Second Thought isn't a person, it's an organisation, a company with actual employees. I don't wish him I'll personally, but I can only see a positive outcome from his "activism" if his dream to be "Vox for leftists" fails and there's a clear double standard in how these folks are treated as either leading voices for Anglo leftism or just some dudes based on convenience.

He's making at least 10K a month from the ST patreon alone, plus sponsorships. Until he's actually putting himself at risk for socialism like my actual comrades, my sympathy for his "plight" will be pretty limited. I've had acquaintances murdered and family members denied employment due to politics, a suburban US YouTuber making a sad face due to being unable to pay his writers ain't gonna pull on my heartstrings. He'll be fine.

1mo ago

Yugopnik tweeting nazi shit

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

He makes cute 20min videos. They're also massively expensive, take very long to make and not even that in-depth. Their call to action usually ends up being "donate". I don't hate him, but he's just another careerist left influencer and maybe going bankrupt will mean he'll re-evaluate his tactics.

1mo ago

Yugopnik tweeting nazi shit

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

1mo ago

Yugopnik tweeting nazi shit

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

1mo ago

Yugopnik tweeting nazi shit

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Are my tactics and strategy as a militant ineffective and in need of re-evaluation?

No, it's the people who are biologically inferior.

This is what substituting a party for a podcast does to a mf. I'm so glad that Second Thought is in the red.

1mo ago

Venezuela moves to open up oil sector to private investors as demanded by Trump

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

https://www.asambleanacional.gob.ve/noticias/an-aprueba-en-primera-discusion-reforma-de-ley-organica-de-hidrocarburos

The law name, because gringo outlets are allergic to naming things. Seems to be legalising and making it easier for subcontractors to operate and develop Venezuelan oil fields. However the oil is still "property" of the state company, to be subcontracted.

I wouldn't say it "throws open" the oil sector, but it looks just like the general trend in Latin America to slowly gut nationalised companies through ever growing subcontracting, which was already a thing anyway. Sucks, but actually not surprising at all. That's been the trend in Venezuela for a while, and in fact this bill has been in the works since 2021.

Also small nitpick but the framing on this article makes it seem like PSUV wanted to not export the oil, for some reason reason. They actually want to do it, and it was a ridiculously large portion of their economy and foreign policy, but sanctions and embargo made it more difficult both to export their oil (crude or refined) and develop new oil fields. Idk, just sounds weird when people like Trump talk about "making the oil flow" when they're personally responsible for it not flowing.

1mo ago

Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez assured US of cooperation before Maduro’s capture

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

Doesn't seem very reliable given the sheer amount of "sources say" but no named source corroboration. And any ambitious high ranking PSUV cadre would be chomping at the bit to denounce some traitors publicly if that were the case. I think it's more likely the Guardian is just using the fact that Americans just learned a third Venezuelan name after Chavez and Maduro.

1mo ago

Venezuela isn't just about oil

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Conselheiro @lemmygrad.ml 1mo ago

I don't think it's so much with intent to hurt Russia and China but rather a pivot away from Africa and Asia to focus on reconsolidating control over the Americas, what they call the American Homeland and Hemisphere.

https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/2003864773/-1/-1/0/2026-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY.PDF

The DoW goes through it in their own document on the US strategy. Killing Cuba and Venezuela in the crib is essential. Both countries may have resilient governments, but they wouldn't survive bombing campaigns like what happened in Yugoslavia or Libya either (though in those cases the aftermath was Europe's problem).

In my opinion, the US seeks to shed off Europe and its African colonies and increase the consolidation of extraction in Central and South America while reindustrializing with stolen primary resources. In that sense I think the attack on Venezuela is more tactical than symbolic. They need the equatorial margin oil coming in cheap, much like they need Brazil's rare earths, Argentinian meat and grain and so on. They're making the moves so that in the new multipolar world they'll still be the pole of the Western Hemisphere.

Besides, most of Latin America is comfortably under the US's thumb anyways, so there's not many receivers to this signal.

(Respectfully,) prioritizing geopolitical signalling over economic change seems to me more like a realist analysis than a Marxist one.