I'm shocked you're being upvoted when you've basically just put words in OP's mouth. They didn't say anything about not taking medication.
Your point about "it might even be harmful for some people" makes about as much sense as not recommending leafy greens because some people might be allergic to them.
Yes, insiders swoop in especially when the odds are not "reflecting reality"..... because the profit motive is there. Which means that spikes in prediction markets are valuable information.
I'm not looking at it as a participant, I'm looking at it as a source of information. Crooked money, straight money, when there is money to made someone with information and money is going to take advantage, tipping us off.
It can be a degenerate cesspool of gambling and insider manipulation and also the bleeding edge of predictive technology..... no reason it can't be both.
That by watching the money, you get the most current and accurate picture of the odds of something happening?
It's almost irrelevant that there is insider trading. The more money involved, the more reflective of reality the odds are. Money's gonna money, legal or otherwise.
Imagine MAGA takes over, starts brutalizing civilians, and creates a loyalist paramilitary forcen that loves him. Then imagine someone kills Trump. Then imagine ICE agents shooting people celebrating Trumps death.
Not saying the US is there but it's not that much of s stretch and Christofascism has everything in common with fundamentalist Islam.
The US as it is today will not exist in 10