Covid․gov now points to a ‘lab leak’ conspiracy website
The Trump administration continues pushing the lab leak theory.
That’s just wild. The one silver lining to T2 is that I’m not shocked by anything anymore. It’s still outrageous, but the surprise is gone.
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By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced
Ah yes, we've already discovered everything. Science is over, everyone, let's go home.
That'll be a relief for high school students everywhere.
By nearly all measures of religion, if there was evidence for a god, it would have already surfaced.
The longer it takes to find the zoonotic link the higher the probability of lab origin.
The longer it takes to find the lab origin link the higher the probability of zoonotic origin. /s
The problem with conspiracy theories is they're non-falsifiable. That something is possible is not evidence that it is probable, that something is probable is not evidence that it happened.
Maybe a lab had something go wrong. Maybe that was because they were careless. Maybe that's because Trump withdrew funding and oversight from the programs that helped labs like this. That should all be investigated. There's a difference between asking for a due diligence after action report and assigning blame because "it had to be someone's fault."
Conspiracy theories are falsifiable! It just means a theory that somebody kept or tried to keep something a secret. I wish the phrase "conspiracy theory" wasn't universally conflated with "crackpot conspiracy theory" like flat earthers or q-anon. Covid lab leak is not a crackpot theory. People just think it is because we call it a conspiracy theory.
I think we're long past trying to be prescriptive about the phrase "conspiracy theory".
There are real conspiracies, but conspiracy theories tend to start from a place of "X must have been at fault" and work backwards from there. Which leads to endless loops of whataboutisms and excuses to try and excuse the existence of the theory at all costs instead of being interested in what actually happened.
It sounds like you're suggesting "lab leak implies China is to blame" should be seen as evidence against it being a lab leak? Or that any theory which implies blame must be suspect. This just sounds like an excuse to disregard any evidence that it's a lab leak, since surely anyone who is arguing that it's a lab-leak must be motivated to do so.
The converse is also true though -- surely you must see that there is similarly motivation to argue in reverse. Why don't we just set aside assuming that we're all arguing in bad faith.
It's possible there was a lab leak, and relevant labs should be investigated for the same reason we investigate all plane crashes, it either leads to finding gaps in processes or confirms whether or not a systemic issue was a factor. The probability has decreased as COVID has been further researched and shows more markers of a 'natural' development, but it's generally beneficial to have a comprehensive audit when processes are in question.
That's not what these people are arguing. They're arguing that it's China's fault and not Trump's. That's it. For that to be the case it 'must' be a lab leak, and so they're retroactively finding justification for how that is possible. That they're running parallel to a reasonable line of logic for a portion of their argument does not validate their argument.
That’s not what these people are arguing.
Yeah I mean I agree. Actually in the top-level comment of this thread, I said the website was BS. I'm not sure what you're trying to tell me.
As you are responding to one of my posts I should clarify my position.
They're arguing that it's China's fault and not Trump's. For that to be the case it 'must' be a lab leak.
Zoonotic or lab origin, the outbreak still occurred in China. Fault is only important to reduce further occurrences. Better wet market policies and tighter lab rules can be implemented simultaneously, worldwide without any blame being assigned.
The appalling US response to covid is fully Trumps fault.
The change in the .gov address is designed to compliment the tariffs and anger China.
The reason to highlight the possible lab origin was because original investigations and papers erroneously claimed that a lab origin was not plausible and any discussion about lab origins was censored as being a conspiracy theory.
That censorship is still occurring.
The problem with conspiracy theories is they're non-falsifiable.
Disagree. Some conspiracies can be proven with evidence. E.g. Watergate.
The virus had to come from somewhere. Finding a zoonotic trail of evidence (or at least a partial one) adds weight to a natural origin. There is lots of opportunity for new evidence to naturally come to light.
On the lab leak side evidence has already been destroyed by the Chinese government. New evidence is unlikely to surface naturally.
So lack of evidence on the zoonotic side gradually moves the balance of probability towards a lab leak.
The general public is unlikely reach certainty about either scenario. I bet the Chinese government has a certain answer.
The team noted that there was no way to establish that the animals were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Even if they were infected, they could have caught the infection from a person who brought the virus to the market,
We already have plenty of evidence to conclude zoonotic origin. Bat RNA. Positive cultures in the wet market. Covid genome.
The closest sample [BatCoV RaTG13] is a 96.1% match and was collected 7 years and 1000km away from the wuhan outbreak.
Positive cultures were found in the wet market, but the origin is not confirmed to be zoonotic. Neither bats nor pangolins were being sold at the market. The virus could have arrived there on the shoe of a lab worker.
The virus could have arrived there on the shoe of a lab worker
And it could have been sprayed by flying saucers. How is that any less probable?
You’re using the words without understanding virology or epidemiology or basic probabilities. We have evidence of prior outbreaks like SARS from the wild and positive cultures in the wet market are major pieces of evidence to back up the origin.
And it could have been sprayed by flying saucers. How is that any less probable?
Because only a trail of infected animals arriving at the market would imply a zoonotic origin.
positive cultures in the wet market are major pieces of evidence to back up the origin.
No, because we cannot determine if those virus cultures arrived to the market on an animal, on the shoe of a lab worker or even by ufo.
The data does not help determine the origin. It only documents the spread.
Not at all. You think animals naturally migrated on their own from the forest to the market and would leave a trail? Someone picked one up and brought it in a cage. It only takes one.
I love how everyone online is an armchair zoonotic expert. Your ideas are inexperienced.
Someone picked one up and brought it in a cage.
Possibly, but there is no evidence that this happened. No animals in captivatity or in the wild outside of the wuhan market have been found with early strains of sars-cov-2.
This is why a lab leak remains as a possible origin.
I love how everyone online is an armchair zoonotic expert. Your ideas are inexperienced.
Expertise is not required to understand what NO EVIDENCE means.
We have plenty of evidence already, such as the positive cultures and the genomic ancestry, you just don’t like what it points to.
